Summer weather 2022: severe weather or heat? Experts venture forecasts- Facebook – Twitter – Authors Christina Rosenberger
Will a dry heat summer with storms follow a warm spring? Meteorologists dare first forecasts for the summer weather 2022.
Update, 26. AprilAlthough spring is not yet over, meteorologists are already analyzing the long-term forecasts for summer 2022. Is a hot summer with extreme storms ahead, or can people in Germany look forward to a normal sunny summer?
"2021 was a year of extremes. Among them, the hottest summer in Europe, heat waves in the Mediterranean, floods and wind lulls in Western Europe, showing that understanding weather and climate extremes is becoming increasingly important for core sectors of society," said Carlo Buontempo, director of the EU climate change service Copernicus. What does the forecast now look like for the upcoming summer of 2022?
Summer weather 2022: Heat and thunderstorms could alternate
Looking at the U.S. weather service NOAA's long-range model, it should be clear that a summer 2022 with some weather extremes could be in store. According to NOAA, the months of June, July and August should be average in terms of precipitation.
That means: There could be dry as well as very wet thunderstorm-like phases, as the weather experts from wetter.com report. But as far as temperatures are concerned, people in Germany apparently have to prepare for significantly higher temperatures than the long-term average. According to this, the deviations should be between one and two degrees.
Summer weather 2022: severe weather or heat? Experts with first forecasts
Update, 29. MarchMarch was an extremely dry month and for the month of April, the weather experts are at odds as far as precipitation is concerned. Can the spring weather therefore be seen as an omen for a dry and hot summer in 2022??
The American weather service NOAA was already right with its winter weather forecast. Long-term models predicted a mild winter, and that's exactly what happened. NOAA had also announced the very dry March weeks ago and was also right about it, like daswetter.com reports. But what is now with the summer weather 2022?
Summer weather 2022: Drought summer unlikely – comes a rainy summer?
The US weather agency NOAA expects a positive deviation in Central Europe for the summer months of June, July and August 2022. Accordingly, a slightly too warm summer should be safe, as also the weather experts of weather.com report. Temperatures are expected to be up to one degree above the long-term average, according to calculations. There are however European-wide differences.
According to the forecast, it will be significantly warmer in the southeast of the continent than in the northwest – and Germany lies right in between. That is: While one can expect quite hot summer weather in southern Germany, the temperatures in the north are likely to be rather cooler. Accordingly, we can expect a hot. Dry summer 2022?
U.S. long-term models NOAA say summer weather will be very different from spring in terms of precipitation. According to forecasts, a drought somme seems extremely unlikely, but one should not expect extremely high precipitation either. Which forecast for the weather in the summer of 2022 actually comes true, remains to be seen.
Summer weather 2022: Thunderstorms and heat are on the way – experts' forecasts clear
Update, 11. March: It could be dangerous again – after the flood disaster in June 2021, many Germans are looking with concern at the coming summer. Floods and storms threaten again? Or do we possibly even have to prepare for the other extreme, the drought? First forecasts paint a gloomy picture.
Because as the weather.net meteorologist Dominik Jung reports, the forecasts for the coming summer do not look very good. According to the US weather service NOAA, there is a threat of severe thunderstorms and storms. According to this, temperatures in June, July and August 2022 will again be slightly above the average of the past 30 years – by up to two degrees. At the same time, it will also be exceptionally wet in many areas. An indication that the weather situation in 2021 could well be repeated. Because it is precisely from this wet, warm weather that thunderstorms, severe weather, heavy rain, squalls and hail often develop.
Summer weather 2022: "It smells like a new severe weather summer"
Jung's conclusion: "It smells like a new summer of severe weather". But both the graduate meteorologist, and the weather experts from the German Weather Service DWD also point out that such forecasts are by no means ordinary weather forecasts. They are – as the name already says – only tendencies. A reliable indication of upcoming weather patterns can always be determined only a few days in advance.
Nevertheless, weather expert Jung sees the situation as the first indication of a "very explosive summer 2022, which could develop here in Germany." More cleverly, so the meteorologist, we are however only at the end of August.
Summer weather 2022: Threatens the next stormy summer?
Update, 7. MarchAt the moment, the weather in Germany and thus also in Baden-Wurttemberg shows its friendly, albeit cool side. Because: The sun is shining, but the temperatures are barely in the double digits, as echo24.de reports in the current weather ticker.
Due to presumably more sunshine, some people are getting quite impatient and already want to know how the weather will be in summer 2022. When will the summer really start? Will there be heat again? Or will there be rather, thinking of last year, a severe weather summer? Meteorologists from the weather.com venture a forecast and at the same time make it clear that the forecast is like looking into a crystal ball, with great uncertainties.
Summer weather 2022: Will the summer bring heat and storms??
Normally, there is summer weather already in May, if you disregard the last few years. In 2021, however, May was very wet, and for this year the long-term models look a little different. The American NOAA model promises a rather too dry May. With the Europeans, the signals are not quite so clear – but also with a tendency to dryness.
If one looks at the temperature deviations, one recognizes on the NOAA model predominantly red coloring of the map, thus it is to become warmer than normal, so the meteorologist Paul Heger of the wetter.com. Means: in May, the summer of 2022 should probably really get going. So will there be a heat summer?
Summer weather 2022: Weather experts expect severe storms
"The three summer months – June, July, August – could be pretty hot. With NOAA model, the months are combined and calculated about the same," Heger explains. For the Europeans, it's a bit different: June would be rather average – maybe even a bit too cool. July will then be significantly warmer. In August, the weather situation promises to be really hot. Will there be as a heat summer? "There are a few indications that already speak for it," said meteorologist Heger.
It is well known that heat attracts violent storms. So do people in Germany have to expect renewed severe thunderstorms, or even flooding? If you look at the frequent weather situation, you can see two lows moving over Great Britain, Norway and Sweden in summer. If these pass Europe and thus also Germany, they bring cool air with them. "This is a very, very dangerous severe weather situation that could be looming over and over again. So, yes, that's some severe weather possible in the summer of 2022," Heger concludes.
Summer weather 2022: Mega heat and storms – what the experts say
Update, 21. FebruarySummer 2022 is still a long way off, but meteorologists dare to make first weather forecasts for the warm season. What weather awaits us in summer? So far, the winter could not really assert itself. February will be marked by mild temperatures. Very stormy weather in Germany.
Because three hurricane lows sweep over the country with wind speeds of over 100 km/h and leave behind a trail of destruction. March promises against it rather calmer, but also very mild to become, as echo24.de reports. If a hot summer finally arrives after a warm spring?
Summer weather 2022: Long-term forecasts predict heat summer
In principle, the long-term forecasts of the forecast models should be treated with caution. They only give a rough indication of the calculated probability of too warm or too cool or too wet and too dry, as wetterprognose-wettervorhersage.de reports. What do the models predict for the summer weather 2022??
The long-term model of NASA calculates for the weather in summer 2022 a deviation of the temperatures of +1.0 to +2.0 degrees – thus clearly in the too warm range. According to this forecast, hot spells could not be ruled out. A drought or a pronounced drought cannot be derived from a normal precipitation forecast for the moment, according to weather experts. This trend is also confirmed by the European long-term forecasts.
According to European weather forecast models, the summer in June has so his start difficulties, but then comes from the second half of July really in the momentum and can provide for a significantly too warm midsummer and August. The precipitation forecast is inconspicuous compared to the multi-year mean value.
Summer 2022: Thunderstorms and extreme heat – that's what experts really expect
First report, 8. FebruarySo far, the winter weather in 2022 leaves much to be desired, as echo24.de reported in the current weather ticker for Baden-Wurttemberg – and this is not expected to change any more. Because, according to weather experts, it should remain mild until mid-February and then a very warm March is apparently imminent. Will this trend continue through the summer of 2022? Is the mild winter an indication of a hot heat summer?
The first days in February have been little wintry so far. A mean temperature of 4.4 degrees was determined in Germany, thus the temperature deviates currently around whole 3.8 degrees, as diploma meteorologist Dominik young reports. The culprit is the westerly weather situation, which is apparently back in full force. The coming days will remain windy and partly wet and above all very mild. March, April and May are also expected to be significantly warmer than the long-term climate average. And what about the summer months of 2022??
Summer weather 2022: Expect a hot summer after a mild winter?
According to daswetter.com it should go from March very quickly in the direction of early summer. The first forecasts for June. July are partially still somewhat inaccurate. But: The European weather model ECMWF sees the two months quite normal temperature, so not too warm and not too cool. According to weather models from NOAA (US government weather service), however, the summer weather turns out quite differently.
Summer weather 2022: Summer months could be significantly warmer – risk of severe weather increases
NOAA expects June to be 1 to 2 degrees too warm. July could also be around 2 degrees warmer than usual. NOAA compares this to the current 30-year average from 1991 to 2020. That in itself was a very warm weather phase. So the summer definitely has the potential to be a heat summer, as daswetter.com further reported. After a mild and sometimes very dreary winter, a hot and sunny summer doesn't sound so bad for now.
But: By the heat it could come also to new extreme weather. The past summer already brought numerous storms with it. Among them, the deadly weather events in the Ahr Valley. Further storms could also occur this summer, whether also in this extent is uncertain, but not excluded.