Weather and climate german weather service health

The atmospheric environment influences health. Human well-being in many respects. Accordingly, the range of products and services provided by the Center for Medical-Meteorological Research of the German Weather Service is diverse. The main focus is on the precautionary idea. A possible impairment or. Weather endangers health. Climate should be reduced or avoided altogether.

Pollen Danger Index

Thermal hazard index

Danger indices for weather sensitive people

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Climate change – Aren't cold winters and cool summers a contradiction to the expected climate warming??

The weather of a single month can in principle not be a proof of climate change. Climatic trends can generally only be detected by looking at a longer period, usually 30 years. On the other hand, they are composed of different weather characteristics. The extremely warm April 2009 in Germany matched z.B. very well with the warming trend observed so far and still expected to continue. It is a reinforcing indication of this trend.In view of the large weather fluctuations from year to year in our climate, colder periods will still occur in the future despite the warming trend.

Climate change – At what point can we say that the deviation of a monthly mean value from the long-term series 1961-1990 was "exceptional" or that. a monthly value deviates "exceptionally" strongly from the mean? Is there a subdivision?

There is no universal definition for extraordinary deviation. It is useful to define it on the basis of the frequency distribution of the values. Thus, the months in which the parameters are outside 80 or 90 % of the cases in the frequency distribution are often called exceptional.

In the media, however, a subjective mixture of different criteria is often used and often a value is called unusual as soon as its last occurrence was several years ago.

Climate change – How to calculate the global mean temperature?

The calculation of a global mean temperature is based on the measurement data of meteorological stations, which are unevenly distributed around the world. Over Europe and the densely populated areas of Asia and North America you find today a very dense meteorological measurement network. On the other continents, the network is already thinner, but at least theoretically (if all available stations provide reports) still sufficient. Over the oceans, there are still large, very data-poor areas where ship reports can only partially replace the lack of fixed stations.Therefore, the global mean temperature cannot be determined by uniformly averaging all available station data. Rather, depending on the neighboring stations present, one assigns different areas of influence and averages with appropriate weighting.In the past, of course, the number and partly the location of the stations changed. You have to adjust the influence areas therefore always anew. There are different methods for this, which come to slightly different results. The best known are the time series provided by the Climate Research Unit of the University of East Anglia1 (England) and the National Climate Data Center (NCDC2) of NOAA (USA). More detailed information on the calculation methods used can be found at the above Internet addresses.If the number of stations in an area is small, the mean values are less accurate. Fortunately, the deviations from the mean temperature are spatially relatively uniform, so that one can determine useful values even with relatively few data. It has therefore been possible to plot time series of global temperature deviation from the mean of the international climatological reference period 1961-1990 up to the 19. century back to create.

Why is a period of 30 years chosen as the multi-year average??

30-year periods have proven to be favorable for climatological studies, because on the one hand they ensure that statistical parameters such as mean values and dispersions can be calculated relatively reliably, and on the other hand sufficient complete measurement series are available.

Why does the DWD use the periods 1961-1990 as well as 1991-2020 as climate reference periods??

According to the recommendations of the World Meteorological Organization (WMO), it is common practice to average the climate and its changes over a 30-year period in order to exclude the influence of natural variability from the statistical observation of the climate. In the past it was often bred between 1961 and 1990. However, many applications require a statistical description of the current climate, for which therefore the climate normal period 1981-2010 was used in recent years. In general, climate reference periods should allow to relate the current weather state to the current climate state of a region as well as to the long-term development of the climate in the region. In a stable climate these two purposes can be fulfilled by a common reference period.For climate elements such as air temperature, which now show a clear and consistent trend due to anthropogenic climate change, a thirty-year update frequency is no longer sufficient to accurately describe the current climatic state. The averaging period 1991-2020 is much better to classify a current month than the period 1961-1990. On the other hand, when considering the long-term evolution of the climate, it is useful to use a fixed standard period as a reference point that represents an average state of the climate during the period under study. For example, if the temperature trend in Germany since 1881 is considered relative to 1991-2020, almost all years in this time series appear to be too 'cool', even relatively warm years. Since not all requirements can be met with one climate reference period, the WMO recommends the use of two reference periods:For the assessment of long-term climate development, the DWD will retain the WMO reference period 1961-1990, since this period is only partially affected by the currently observed accelerated warming.For climate monitoring tasks, such as z. B. monthly and seasonal or annual anomaly maps not aimed at monitoring longer-term climate change, and as a basis for climate projections, climate normal periods will be updated every ten years in the future. From 2021 onwards, the current reference period 1991-2020 will be used for these purposes.

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